Why Experts Believe Covid-19 is Far Worse Than The Spanish Flu

Even though the flu fatality numbers seem to be greater

Several people have recently commented that the other influenza epidemics have been worse than COVID-19. The CDC numbers, they say, show that we had 20,000 to 60,000 fatalities from the flu in previous years and it looks like we may not approach that with COVID-19.

Photo by Tim Cooper on Unsplash

Furthermore, some people say that even though we have a higher reported death toll, our percentage of fatalities from COVID-19 is lower than in Italy. So it stands to reason, they say, that we are making a bigger deal of COVID-19 than we need to.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), and the CDC, COVID-19 is worse than the flu for the following reasons.

1. Humans have no natural immunity from COVID-19 since it is a totally new virus. This means, unlike other viruses, which our immune systems have some experience fighting, it has the potential to infect more people.
2. The number of people infected by COVID-19 (up to 2.5 people) is more almost twice the number (1.3 people) as for the flu.
3. The incubation time from being infected to the first symptoms for COVID-19 is up to 14 days, whereas the flu is up to four days. COVID-19 can have no symptoms during the entire 14 days.
4. The hospitalization rate for COVID-19 is 19% versus two percent for the flu.
5. The case fatality rate, ie, the number of reported deaths among total cases for COVID-19 is 3.9% versus .1% or less for the flu.
6. The data we have on COVID-19 is only for a few months and not only for an entire year.
7. Epidemiologists say that 20% to 60% of the world’s population could end up catching COVID-19.
8. Because of these reasons, the impact of COVID-19 creates the potential for a systemic breakdown of our healthcare, burials, economy, transportation, education, and food production and distribution systems, to say the least. Think of a planned power outage versus blowing out the grid.

Remember that the early predictions were up to one or two million American fatalities if we didn’t take immediate measures to social distance and minimize the spread of the virus. Not to mention the lasting impact of that kind of systemic collapse would have had on our economy and the rest of our culture.

Yes, our economy is hurting now, and many of us are hurting too and will be for a while, even in a best-case scenario. But the experts warned us that it could have been worse. I am going to tend to believe the epidemiologist, who I know, and the 75-year-old ER hero doctor, who is my neighbor, and Dr. Fauci and others who have studied and prepared for this very scenario for years.

Finally, about the comparison with Italy. Comparing the per capita death rates of a free, pluralistic melting pot like the US to a small European country that is twice as population-dense, with a completely different culture, conditions, healthcare system, values, circumstances, political response, etc, is a fallacy at best. There are no controls for that kind of comparison and the US death toll or other impacts are far from over. I would be interested in looking at the caveats and final numbers if we are going to make those kinds of comparisons for the purpose of what we could do better next time.